All carry, no bailout. The club that clears the water to the middle is the only one that matters.
Clubbing for the flag on a front pin, then catching one thin and watching it splash a yard short of the green.
On a full-carry hole your only job is clearing the water to a safe landing. A ball pin-high in the back fringe still counts; a perfect number that comes up a yard short costs you two.
Take enough club to reach the center every time, and commit to it. The back of the green is a free bailout. The water is not.
≈ 0.4-0.7 strokes per hole where the carry is genuinely in doubt, mostly by erasing the re-tee.
Strokes-saved figures are approximate, based on expected-value (strokes-gained) course management for a mid-handicap golfer (roughly 8-18). These are real ranges, not guarantees.
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